GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 3/5/2023, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Toronto FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Atlanta United FC are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDD), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Toronto FC are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Toronto FC hold a 7.1-point power-rating edge (34.7 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.1% in the Major League Soccer, while Toronto FC holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Toronto FC

Probability

39.1%

Model confidence

39.1%

Toronto FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Atlanta United FCWWLDD

GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Toronto FCLLDLL

GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Atlanta United FCToronto FC
35.2Attack44.4
38.9Defence40.7
22.2Form31.5
34.7Power41.8
1.32xG1.53
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