GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 3/14/2026, 7:15:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Philadelphia Union · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Atlanta United FC are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Philadelphia Union are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Philadelphia Union hold a 6.2-point power-rating edge (34.7 v 40.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.5% in the Major League Soccer, while Philadelphia Union holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Philadelphia Union

Probability

41.4%

Model confidence

12.5%

Philadelphia Union has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Atlanta United FCLLLDW

GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Philadelphia UnionLLLLW

GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Atlanta United FCPhiladelphia Union
35.2Attack46.3
38.9Defence38.9
22.2Form29.6
34.7Power40.9
1.37xG1.59
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