Atlanta United FCvs
New York City FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/26/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New York City FC · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FC
Original prediction
New York City FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 39.1% | 32.6% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.4% | 28.7% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.71 | 34.5% | 38.6% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
New York City FC
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
New York City FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80