Atlanta United FCvs
Chicago Fire
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/24/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlanta United FC 2-3 Chicago Fire
Original prediction
Chicago Fire
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 35.4% | 31.6% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.7% | 27.5% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 39.9% | 41.0% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Chicago Fire
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20