ATK Mohun Baganvs
NorthEast United
COMPLETEDIndia · IFA Shield · 9/29/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ATK Mohun Bagan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ATK Mohun Bagan 1-1 NorthEast United
Original prediction
ATK Mohun Bagan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 60.5% | 45.8% | -14.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 22.8% | 24.5% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 5.39 | 16.7% | 29.7% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.96 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
ATK Mohun Bagan
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
ATK Mohun Bagan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 2.50/1.00