Athlone Townvs
Treaty United
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 10/9/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athlone Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Athlone Town 1-0 Treaty United, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Athlone Town 1-2 Treaty United
Original prediction
Athlone Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 62.8% | 48.9% | -13.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.13 | 21.8% | 27.8% | 6.0 pts |
| Away | 5.83 | 15.4% | 23.3% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.9 pts
Projected Score
Athlone Town 1–0 Treaty United
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Athlone Town
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Athlone Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60