Athlone Townvs
Kerry FC
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 9/18/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athlone Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Athlone Town 0-0 Kerry FC, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Athlone Town 3-0 Kerry FC
Original prediction
Athlone Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.1% | 36.4% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.1% | 29.7% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 29.7% | 33.9% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Projected Score
Athlone Town 0–0 Kerry FC
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Athlone Town
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Athlone Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Athlone TownDWWWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Kerry FCLWWDL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Athlone TownKerry FC
35.5Attack41.9
61.3Defence61.3
44.1Form45.2
49.1Power51.2
0.88xG0.90