Athlone Townvs
Cork City
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cork City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Athlone Town 2-1 Cork City
Original prediction
Cork City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 33.6% | 28.7% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.6% | 28.4% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 40.8% | 43.0% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Cork City
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Cork City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40