Athletic Clubvs
Vila Nova
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 9/4/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vila Nova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Athletic Club 0-0 Vila Nova, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Athletic Club 5-0 Vila Nova
Original prediction
Vila Nova
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 35.7% | 28.7% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 31.2% | 30.9% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 33.1% | 40.5% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Projected Score
Athletic Club 0–0 Vila Nova
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Vila Nova
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Vila Nova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Athletic ClubLLLWW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Vila NovaWDWWL
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Athletic ClubVila Nova
34.7Attack49.3
64.0Defence66.7
45.3Form58.7
50.4Power59.3
0.72xG1.00