Athletic Clubvs
Sport Recife
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 10/1/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athletic Club · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Athletic Club 0-0 Sport Recife, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Athletic Club 1-2 Sport Recife
Original prediction
Athletic Club
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 40.7% | 36.5% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 29.5% | 30.2% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 29.7% | 33.4% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Projected Score
Athletic Club 0–0 Sport Recife
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Athletic Club
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Athletic Club has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60