Serie BSerie B
Thursday, 23 July 2026Last updated 12:36
Athletic Club

Athletic Club

Home
DL
21
Full time
São Bernardo

São Bernardo

Away
DD
GoalVio prediction
38% confidence
Athletic Club(37%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Athletic Club
37%
Draw
31%
São Bernardo
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Athletic Club
9
São Bernardo
54
Defence
Athletic Club
82
São Bernardo
46
Momentum
Athletic Club
17
São Bernardo
33
Danger (xG)
Athletic Club
0.00
São Bernardo
0.73
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Athletic Club)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (São Bernardo)
0.73
avg per match
xG against (Athletic Club)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (São Bernardo)
0.21
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
DLWLL
São BernardoSão Bernardo
DDLLL

Probability breakdown

38% confidence
Athletic Club37%
Draw31%
São Bernardo33%

Athletic Club leads with 37% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Athletic Club head into this in Serie B fixture in mixed form (DL), while São Bernardo arrive in mixed form (DD). Athletic Club have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for São Bernardo over 2 games.

The model rates Athletic Club's attack at 9/100 against a 46/100 São Bernardo defence, and São Bernardo's attack at 54/100 against a 82/100 Athletic Club backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Athletic Club have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game at home. São Bernardo have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

São Bernardo have generated 0.73 xG per game recently while conceding 0.21 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

There is no head-to-head data between Athletic Club and São Bernardo in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Athletic Club to win with 38% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Athletic Club 3656%, Draw 3056%, São Bernardo 3288%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Athletic Club

Athletic Club

D
@ Ceara
14 Jul 2026
00
L
vs Operario-PR
8 Jul 2026
01
W
vs Avai
28 Jun 2026
10
L
@ Londrina
20 Jun 2026
02
L
@ Internacional
12 May 2026
01
São Bernardo

São Bernardo

D
vs Avai
17 Jul 2026
11
xG 0.7
D
vs Cuiaba
12 Jul 2026
22
xG 0.7
L
@ Criciuma
27 Jun 2026
01
L
vs Juventude
21 Jun 2026
01
L
vs America Mineiro
16 May 2026
01

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?

GoalVio's model predicts Athletic Club to win with 38% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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