Athletic Clubvs
Elche
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/12/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athletic Club · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Athletic Club 1-1 Elche
Original prediction
Athletic Club
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 66.4% | 57.1% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.69 | 20.3% | 22.7% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 7.18 | 13.3% | 20.2% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.69 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Athletic Club
Probability
57.1%
Model confidence
57.1%
Athletic Club has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80