Athletic Clubvs
Atletico Madrid
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/5/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico Madrid
Original prediction
Atletico Madrid
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.02 | 31.5% | 28.3% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 28.2% | 26.8% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.36 | 40.3% | 44.9% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Madrid
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
Atletico Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40