Athletic Clubvs
Alaves
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/19/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athletic Club · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves
Original prediction
Athletic Club
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 57.8% | 38.9% | -19.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.93 | 24.3% | 26.2% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 5.31 | 17.9% | 35.0% | 17.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.93 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Athletic Club
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Athletic Club has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20