Athletic Club IIvs
Real Avilés
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/6/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athletic Club II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Athletic Club II 2-1 Real Avilés
Original prediction
Athletic Club II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.5% | 43.2% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.8% | 26.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.53 | 25.7% | 29.9% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Athletic Club II
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Athletic Club II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20