Athletic Club IIvs
Extremadura 1924
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athletic Club II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Athletic Club II 1-3 Extremadura 1924
Original prediction
Athletic Club II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.3% | 44.6% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.7% | 29.1% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.77 | 24.0% | 26.4% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Athletic Club II
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Athletic Club II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00