Athletic Carpivs
Ospitaletto
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ospitaletto · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Athletic Carpi 2-2 Ospitaletto
Original prediction
Ospitaletto
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.93 | 30.8% | 29.8% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.0% | 29.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 39.2% | 41.1% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.01 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Ospitaletto
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Ospitaletto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80