Athletic Carpivs
Lumezzane
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/17/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lumezzane · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Athletic Carpi 3-1 Lumezzane
Original prediction
Lumezzane
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.8% | 29.6% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.4% | 25.8% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 30.8% | 44.5% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Lumezzane
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Lumezzane has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40