Athletic Carpivs
Cittadella
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/13/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cittadella · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Athletic Carpi 1-2 Cittadella
Original prediction
Cittadella
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.58 | 25.3% | 31.8% | 6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.9% | 29.8% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 46.8% | 38.5% | -8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Cittadella
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Cittadella has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80