Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atenas · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Atenas are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Paysandu are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Atenas hold an 8.9-point power-rating edge (53.6 v 44.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.6% in the Segunda División, while Atenas holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Atenas
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
13.6%
Atenas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40