Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fenix · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atenas 0-0 Fenix, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atenas 4-0 Fenix
Original prediction
Fenix
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 October 2026 at 20:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.52 | 25.8% | 32.4% | 6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.4% | 30.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 44.7% | 37.1% | -7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Projected Score
Atenas 0–0 Fenix
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Fenix
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Fenix has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtenasLDWDD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FenixLDWLL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AtenasFenix
41.4Attack45.6
62.1Defence64.4
51.7Form48.9
53.3Power54.4
0.94xG0.95