Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atenas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atenas 0-0 Cerrito
Original prediction
Atenas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.1% | 39.2% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.2% | 30.2% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.39 | 26.7% | 30.7% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.10 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Atenas
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Atenas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtenasWDLLD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CerritoWLLLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AtenasCerrito
47.8Attack43.5
58.0Defence59.4
52.2Form47.8
53.9Power52.2
1.26xG0.99