Atalantavs
Sturm Graz
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 11/9/2023, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atalanta · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Atalanta are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Sturm Graz are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Atalanta hold a 37.1-point power-rating edge (71.6 v 34.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 75.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Atalanta holds the strongest overall chance at 76% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Atalanta
Probability
75.6%
Model confidence
75.6%
Atalanta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80