Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atalanta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atalanta 3-1 Pafos
Original prediction
Atalanta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.31 | 71.7% | 44.6% | -27.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.26 | 17.9% | 26.6% | 8.7 pts |
| Away | 9.07 | 10.4% | 28.7% | 18.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Atalanta
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Atalanta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtalantaWLLLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PafosWLWDW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
AtalantaPafos
16.7Attack83.3
100.0Defence50.0
66.7Form66.7
64.8Power68.0
1.40xG1.36