Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atalanta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Atalanta are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Marseille are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Atalanta hold a 16.2-point power-rating edge (71.6 v 55.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.4% in the UEFA Europa League, while Atalanta holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Atalanta
Probability
64.4%
Model confidence
64.4%
Atalanta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20