Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atalanta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Atalanta are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Liverpool are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 71.6 against 72.1. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.9% in the UEFA Europa League, while Atalanta holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Atalanta
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
Atalanta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60