Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mosconia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Astur 0-0 Mosconia
Original prediction
Mosconia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.66 | 19.5% | 33.4% | 13.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.8% | 27.4% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 54.7% | 39.2% | -15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.53 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Mosconia
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Mosconia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AsturDLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.67/2.00
BTTS 2/3O2.5 2/3
MosconiaLWL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 1.33/1.33
BTTS 1/3O2.5 2/3
AsturMosconia
66.7Attack50.0
33.3Defence50.0
33.3Form50.0
45.3Power50.0
1.64xG1.46