Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Åstorp · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Astrio 1-2 Åstorp
Original prediction
Åstorp
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.50 | 20.0% | 21.0% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.19 | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 58.5% | 57.5% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Åstorp
Probability
57.5%
Model confidence
57.5%
Åstorp has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AstrioLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ÅstorpLWWLL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AstrioÅstorp
22.8Attack40.4
22.8Defence42.1
10.5Form35.1
22.6Power41.6
1.05xG1.85