Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Astrakhan · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Astrakhan are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Lugansk are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Astrakhan hold a 3.4-point power-rating edge (45.2 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.8% in the Second League - Group 1, while Astrakhan holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Astrakhan
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Astrakhan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40