Aston Villa Wvs
Newcastle United W
COMPLETEDEngland · WSL Cup · 9/30/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aston Villa W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aston Villa W 3-1 Newcastle United W
Original prediction
Aston Villa W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 20:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 45.0% | 49.6% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.1% | 24.1% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 30.8% | 26.3% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Aston Villa W
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
49.6%
Aston Villa W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40