Aston Villa Wvs
Manchester City W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 9/13/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester City W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aston Villa W 1-4 Manchester City W
Original prediction
Manchester City W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.87 | 11.5% | 27.5% | 15.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.06 | 17.9% | 25.1% | 7.1 pts |
| Away | 1.29 | 70.5% | 47.4% | -23.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Manchester City W
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Manchester City W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00