Aston Villa Wvs
Liverpool W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aston Villa W 2-1 Liverpool W
Original prediction
Liverpool W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.49 | 26.1% | 23.7% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 25.1% | 23.6% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.87 | 48.8% | 52.7% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Liverpool W
Probability
52.7%
Model confidence
52.7%
Liverpool W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00