Aston Villa Wvs
Crystal Palace W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 10/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aston Villa W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aston Villa W 1-1 Crystal Palace W
Original prediction
Aston Villa W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.6% | 41.7% | -10.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.9% | 25.0% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.87 | 23.6% | 33.3% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.82 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Aston Villa W
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Aston Villa W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00