Aston Villavs
Viking
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aston Villa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aston Villa 3-1 Viking
Original prediction
Aston Villa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 76.6% | 57.0% | -19.6 pts |
| Draw | 6.56 | 14.6% | 21.4% | 6.9 pts |
| Away | 10.87 | 8.8% | 21.6% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Aston Villa
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Aston Villa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00