Aston Villavs
Lille
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 3/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aston Villa · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Aston Villa are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Lille are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Aston Villa hold a 31.1-point power-rating edge (79.6 v 48.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 65.2% in the UEFA Europa League, while Aston Villa holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aston Villa
Probability
65.2%
Model confidence
65.2%
Aston Villa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60