Aston Villavs
Fenerbahçe
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/14/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aston Villa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aston Villa 6-0 Fenerbahçe
Original prediction
Aston Villa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 56.1% | 40.9% | -15.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.01 | 23.8% | 27.7% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 4.77 | 20.0% | 31.4% | 11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Aston Villa
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Aston Villa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20