Aston Villa U21vs
Middlesbrough U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aston Villa U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aston Villa U21 2-2 Middlesbrough U21
Original prediction
Aston Villa U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.09 | 42.5% | 46.6% | 4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 23.4% | 23.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 34.1% | 30.2% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.80 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Aston Villa U21
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Aston Villa U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80