Aston Villa U21vs
Crystal Palace U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 8/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aston Villa U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aston Villa U21 0-2 Crystal Palace U21
Original prediction
Aston Villa U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 45.9% | 40.2% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.6% | 27.3% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.5% | 32.5% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Aston Villa U21
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Aston Villa U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 7 · GA 17 · avg 1.40/3.40