Asteras Tripolisvs
Olympiakos Piraeus
COMPLETEDGreece · Super League 1 · 8/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Olympiakos Piraeus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Asteras Tripolis 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus
Original prediction
Olympiakos Piraeus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.42 | 12.6% | 26.8% | 14.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.12 | 22.6% | 26.7% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 1.44 | 64.8% | 46.6% | -18.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Olympiakos Piraeus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60