Asteras Tripolisvs
Aris Thessalonikis
COMPLETEDGreece · Cup · 9/10/2026, 2:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aris Thessalonikis · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Asteras Tripolis 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis
Original prediction
Aris Thessalonikis
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.93 | 31.2% | 30.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 28.0% | 27.4% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.25 | 40.7% | 41.8% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.27 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Aris Thessalonikis
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Aris Thessalonikis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60
GF 9 · GA 14 · avg 1.80/2.80