Asteras Tripolisvs
AEK Athens FC
COMPLETEDGreece · Super League 1 · 9/13/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AEK Athens FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Asteras Tripolis 1-1 AEK Athens FC
Original prediction
AEK Athens FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.74 | 12.0% | 20.4% | 8.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.43 | 21.0% | 23.9% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.39 | 67.0% | 55.7% | -11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.43 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
AEK Athens FC
Probability
55.7%
Model confidence
55.7%
AEK Athens FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
GF 13 · GA 1 · avg 2.60/0.20