Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MC Alger · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ASO Chlef 1-1 MC Alger
Original prediction
MC Alger
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 17:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.39 | 20.6% | 23.9% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.95 | 30.6% | 29.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 1.85 | 48.8% | 47.1% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.95 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
MC Alger
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
MC Alger has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ASO ChlefLLLDL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
MC AlgerWWWDL
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
ASO ChlefMC Alger
25.0Attack50.0
33.3Defence100.0
8.3Form100.0
25.7Power86.5
0.76xG1.46