Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Asker · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-2 (7%), 3-2 (7%), 5-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Asker 4-2 Bærum
Original prediction
Asker
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 62.9% | 55.3% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.78 | 18.8% | 21.2% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.94 | 18.2% | 23.5% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–27%
- 2.3–27%
- 3.5–26%
Predicted outcome
Asker
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
Asker has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AskerLWWWL
GF 14 · GA 11 · avg 2.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BærumLLLLL
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.00/3.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AskerBærum
100.0Attack93.9
54.0Defence37.9
87.3Form53.0
78.9Power58.4
4.44xG2.40