Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ASIL Lysi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ASIL Lysi 1-1 Doxa
Original prediction
ASIL Lysi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 38.8% | 37.8% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.2% | 28.7% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 33.1% | 33.6% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
ASIL Lysi
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
ASIL Lysi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ASIL LysiLWDWL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
DoxaWWWDL
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
ASIL LysiDoxa
58.3Attack100.0
66.7Defence41.7
58.3Form83.3
62.0Power76.6
1.65xG1.44