Ashton Unitedvs
Redcar Athletic
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Trophy · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ashton United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ashton United 1-0 Redcar Athletic
Original prediction
Ashton United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.17 | 28.7% | 37.4% | 8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.6% | 26.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 46.8% | 36.5% | -10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Ashton United
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Ashton United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20