Ashton Unitedvs
Redcar Athletic
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Redcar Athletic · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ashton United 0-1 Redcar Athletic, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ashton United 1-2 Redcar Athletic
Original prediction
Redcar Athletic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.07 | 29.0% | 20.6% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.3% | 25.7% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 45.7% | 53.7% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.0 pts
Projected Score
Ashton United 0–1 Redcar Athletic
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Redcar Athletic
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
Redcar Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00