Ashton Unitedvs
Gainsborough Trinity
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ashton United · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ashton United 1-2 Gainsborough Trinity
Original prediction
Ashton United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.1% | 38.4% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.7% | 26.8% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.47 | 36.2% | 34.8% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Ashton United
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Ashton United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20