Ashton Unitedvs
Alfreton Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alfreton Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ashton United 0-0 Alfreton Town, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ashton United 0-0 Alfreton Town
Original prediction
Alfreton Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.1% | 34.9% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.3% | 29.3% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 36.5% | 35.8% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Projected Score
Ashton United 0–0 Alfreton Town
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Alfreton Town
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Alfreton Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40