Ashdodvs
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Leumit · 10/16/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ashdod · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Ashdod 2-0 Maccabi Kiryat Gat, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ashdod 0-0 Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Original prediction
Ashdod
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 68.2% | 74.2% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.64 | 19.4% | 16.7% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 7.29 | 12.3% | 9.1% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.64 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Projected Score
Ashdod 2–0 Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Ashdod
Probability
74.2%
Model confidence
74.2%
Ashdod has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AshdodWWWWW
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Maccabi Kiryat GatDLLWL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AshdodMaccabi Kiryat Gat
81.5Attack33.3
70.4Defence59.3
88.9Form33.3
80.1Power44.2
2.32xG0.54