Ashdodvs
Maccabi Herzliya
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Leumit · 10/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ashdod · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ashdod 1-0 Maccabi Herzliya
Original prediction
Ashdod
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 62.5% | 68.0% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 21.6% | 18.8% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 5.60 | 16.0% | 13.3% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Ashdod
Probability
68.0%
Model confidence
68.0%
Ashdod has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AshdodWWWWW
GF 16 · GA 4 · avg 3.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
Maccabi HerzliyaLDWDL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
AshdodMaccabi Herzliya
81.0Attack38.1
71.4Defence52.4
85.7Form38.1
78.5Power45.1
2.46xG0.71